You send someone a message and do not hear back that day. By evening, you are thinking that they have lost interest in you. You remember the last time they seemed distracted and the occasion when they changed a plan. Both incidents now seem relevant to the unanswered message. What you may not remember as readily is that the person has often replied late and has continued making time for you.
This is one way an expectation can influence the evidence we notice. The question is whether you are evaluating this person’s behavior as it happens or interpreting each event through a belief you already carry.
How the expectation develops
Suppose you have an established belief that people eventually lose interest in you. It may have developed after one painful relationship or a series of experiences. You do not have to consciously repeat the belief for it to affect a new situation. When communication changes, the possibility of rejection may occur to you immediately.
You may pay particular attention to delayed replies, canceled plans, or brief conversations because they appear to support your expectation. A reassuring message or an effort to see you may receive less attention. Over time, the examples that fit the expectation can make it feel increasingly accurate.
What psychology tells us
Psychologists use the term confirmation bias for the tendency to favor information that supports an existing belief or expectation. This can involve searching for confirming evidence, interpreting ambiguous information in a favorable direction, or failing to give contradictory information the same consideration. The American Psychological Association defines the concept, and Raymond Nickerson’s 1998 review examines the different ways it appears in human reasoning.
Confirmation bias offers a useful psychological explanation for part of this experience. Sometimes people really are inconsistent or withdrawing. Their behavior still needs to be evaluated on its own evidence.
How an old belief may influence a new decision
In the Mirrored Columns Model, we examine what happens when a recurring thought begins influencing perception and the resulting choices. If you treat the unanswered message as proof that you are unwanted, you might send several follow-up messages, ask for reassurance, apologize when you have done nothing wrong, or stop speaking to the person before you know why they were unavailable.
Those are different decisions, but they may share an aim: preventing another rejection or avoiding the painful feeling you expect rejection to bring. The belief has begun to influence how you interpret the situation and what you believe you need to do.
The model adds another question to the psychological discussion: When did this become a statement about my worth? An unanswered message is an event. “I am someone people lose interest in” is a judgment about the self. Examining that additional meaning helps us distinguish the present relationship from an older belief.
Examine the evidence before deciding
Return to the message. Write down what you know: when you sent it, whether the person usually replies promptly, and whether anything else has changed. Then write your interpretation separately. You may discover that you have little information about this particular delay, or that several recent behaviors reasonably deserve discussion.
Ask which examples you have been giving the most attention. Include occasions that support your concern and occasions that challenge it. Consider whether your next action should be a question, a conversation about a repeated behavior, a boundary, or simply allowing more time. The appropriate choice depends on the actual relationship.
Questions for reflection
- What happened in a recent situation that brought up a familiar fear?
- What did you immediately believe about yourself?
- Which details seemed to support that belief?
- What information did you overlook or still need?
- What action would address the present situation while checking whether the earlier belief fits the present facts?
Research and source notes
Research on confirmation bias helps explain how people may notice evidence that fits an existing belief. The Mirrored Columns Model brings that insight into a related question: how might an earlier belief about oneself affect which choices seem available?
American Psychological Association, Dictionary of Psychology: Confirmation Bias.
For further reading, see Why the Same Situation Can Produce Different Responses.
